Increases in energy prices and food prices, global economic crisis, Greek debt. What's unique? Not according to the environmental business adviser Paul Gilding, who believes they are minor effects before a major global crisis affecting the world.
Gilding, author of a new book, "The Great Disruption," has a simple message: We have left it too late to avoid serious impacts of climate change and environmental damage while trying to lead global economic growth beyond the capacity of the system and resources.
As a result, we risk an environmental disaster, which results in a sudden collapse of the economy, and we must be prepared to respond to the "economic and social storm" resulting, they say.
"If you thought the financial situation of 2008 was a crisis, and if he believed that climate change is a challenge cultural, economic and political hold on because it is the worst," writes Gilding, former head of Greenpeace International.
"We are about to witness how humanity faces its greatest crisis, something that would shake up the background, the end of economic growth," said the Australian, 52, an activist arrested five times.
After the frustration that caused him to see how the main environmental movement was struggling to be heard, Gilding founded his own consulting firm to advise on sustainability companies like BHP Billiton and DuPont.
Scientific studies indicate that we are reaching the limits of growth, he argues, and rising oil prices and since 2008, followed by an economic crisis in part motivated by a desperate attempt to stimulate growth, are warning signs.
Put examples of a group of scientists - the Global Footprint Network - showing that in 2009 we were already taking the world economy to 140 percent capacity, and plans to accelerate and strengthen as the population grows they will encounter against a wall.
The collective denial about how climate change and pressure on resources will affect us only end when we feel in our pockets, he adds.
Not respond to climate change or sustainability even when it is clear that we risk losing 50 percent of the diversity of life on Earth. Respond when threatened our economy and lifestyle, "he added.
The author provides a series of shocks ecological, social and economic consequences of climate change, including extreme weather, melting of the polar regions and a shift in agricultural production will increase prices.
Financial markets registered large declines, while the resulting economic and political crisis will be massive in scale and will last for decades.
"The basic model is broken. If we want the economy to grow again at a significant rate in the West and developing countries, then prices will soar on oil and if oil prices grow and raise food prices That will undermine economic growth, "says Gilding.
"I think we will have another major economic crisis in years," he added, speaking by telephone from his home on the island of Tasmania, where he returned after an overseas tour to promote his book.
"Greece may have been the trigger, (the Great Depression) was not this time could be next," he added. "Who knows what will be."
Recent political events, such as the Arab spring, can also be linked with a rise in food prices, he says.
"There is a very clear connection between rising food prices in Egypt and Tunisia and the political upheavals that have driven the movement of the Arab spring," he adds.
The biggest price increase has been linked with poor wheat harvests in Russia by the bad weather, and Gilding argues that if it had been in the Midwest could have caused a major catastrophe in the wheat market
Do not rule spectacular advances in technology, but believes that it is realistic to ensure that it is too late to stem a crisis.
What is supposed to do? Gilding says the gloomy view that says it is too late to prevent a crisis made him despair at first, and remember how he broke to mourn in a 2007 presentation to a business audience in New York.
But despite the geopolitical unrest and strife that says we might have to go, is optimistic and believes that humanity will respond quickly once you realize the scale of the threat. He instances the mobilization of much of the world during the Second World War.
The author sees a massive industrial and economic change to curb climate change, including removing the net emissions of carbon dioxide in 20 years, with a cut of 50 percent in the first five years.
Some of the measures, expected to close a thousand coal plants in five years and the construction of large solar and wind power complex. Suggests that half of the worldwide fleet of aircraft must be grounded to reduce emissions.
Further underlines that China, despite increased emissions, has already become a model in the fight against climate change by investing in green technologies.
"They missed the industrial revolution. They missed the technological revolution. They will not miss the energy revolution," he said.
Gilding is the world after the crisis as one in which the oil can die, but where there will be great opportunities for innovative companies, but we'll see to abandon our dependence on the economy focused on growth and consumption.
And despite the painful transition, says the change will be positive and there is the potential to spearhead a "more flexible lifestyle," including eg greater equality of income and work fewer hours. [Source: allvoices.com]
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